2026
Reminder that J6 was a relative creampuff đš đŠ đ„ đŒ đ đŹ
At least 35 people have been killed and 1,200 detained in Iran’s economic protests www.newsdoes.com/share/201…
We do indeed live in interesting times.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz ends 2026 campaign for reĂ«lection www.axios.com/local/twi…
Years of sanctions and embargoes hollowed out Venezuela, then we acted shocked when it destabilized. Now the U.S. literally grabbed Maduro. Economic strangulation, followed by military seizure, isnât deterrence â itâs manufactured provocation with a predictable endgame.
Pin the Tail on the Mascot
Hereâs the symmetry people donât like to acknowledge.
Many liberals argued that even if Joe Biden were cognitively diminished, senile, or largely absent for stretches of his presidency, it didnât meaningfully matter. Why? Because the presidency is not a solo act. Itâs an institutional machine. A competent, experienced staff can still set policy, execute strategy, manage crises, and move legislation. The White House, they said, still functioned.
That argument is internally consistent. But it doesnât stop being true when the name on the door changes.
If Donald Trump is a buffoon, a clown, impulsive, or morally unmoored, yet surrounded by a disciplined, ideologically motivated, and strategically effective team, then the same logic applies. Outcomes donât vanish because you dislike the figurehead. Power doesnât evaporate because you mock the man at the podium.
In both cases, the real question isnât the presidentâs personality or neurological status. Itâs the ecosystem: the advisors, the operators, the incentives, the institutional leverage, and the willingness to use it.
Reducing presidencies to âsenile grandpaâ or âorange clownâ isnât analysis. Itâs coping. If you were willing to argue that Bidenâs administration functioned despite Biden, you donât get to pretend Trumpâs administration canât function despite Trump.
Either institutions and teams matter, or they donât. You donât get to switch the rule based on who you hate.
I lived in Berlin from 2007 to 2010, and watching this made me curious whether my memories of that period were just personal impressions or reflected real structural conditions at the time. When I was there, energy security was not a constant topic of public concern, and Russian gas was treated as a stable, almost background assumption of European life.
I went back and checked the data. During that period, Germany was already sourcing roughly 35â40% of its natural gas from Russia, with a significant portion transiting through Ukraine. Despite the 2006 and 2009 RussiaâUkraine gas disputes, Germanyâs supply was largely maintained, which reinforced confidence in the arrangement. At the same time, Germany was already committed to phasing out nuclear power and expanding natural gas as a bridge fuel.
In retrospect, the calm I remember wasnât accidental. It was supported by cheap energy, uninterrupted supply, and policy decisions that deferred risk rather than eliminated it. The memories and the facts align more than I expected. youtu.be/zRG_ABrvL…
The more things change the more they stay the same + history doesn’t repeat itselfâbut it surely and certainly rhymes! youtu.be/b5wfPlgKF…
Fascinating.
Russians are devastated about Venezuela youtube.com/watch
I think itâs very dangerous to dismiss Donald Trump as someone who simply âfailed upâ into becoming U.S. presidentâtwice. Iâll say it again, because people keep trying to wave this away: it is exceedingly dangerous to treat Donald Trump as a mistake, a fluke, or some kind of cartoonish buffoonery that accidentally captured the presidency of the only superpower in the world. That story may feel comforting, but it does not explain reality.
People like to frame Trump as Bam Bam or âHulk smashâânoise, impulse, raw force, no cognition. But even if you accepted that metaphor, Bam Bam was a remarkably capable child. He wasnât random. He was effective. And Trump isnât Bam Bam anyway.
The only way the âbuffoon by accidentâ theory works is if Trump has a fairy godmotherâsome blue, unseen hand quietly turning six decades of public life into nothing but luck and coincidence. Otherwise, the record simply doesnât add up.
No one has a 60-year public career, survives repeated elite attempts at removal, wins the presidency twice, reshapes the Supreme Court, and delivers something as consequential as the rollback of Roe v. Wade by accident or brute stupidity. Thatâs not how power works.
American presidents have actually gotten better at cartoonifying themselvesâat leaning into spectacle, absurdity, or buffooneryâbecause it creates plausible deniability. It lets people believe that ruthless or carefully calculated outcomes were unplanned, chaotic, or dumb. That misread is the shield.
You donât have to admire Trump. You donât have to like him. But dismissing him as slapstick is analytically reckless. His presentation may be crude. His incentives are not. Confusing the two is how people keep getting blindsided. The rest is up to you. You can lead a horse to water, but you canât make it drink.
Politically Chris Abraham
Iâm economically right, culturally unsentimental, and institutionally serious. I donât want to rule people or liberate them. I want systems that donât lie, donât rot, and donât pretend incentives donât exist.
I believe markets are real, scarcity is real, and incentives shape behavior whether we acknowledge them or not. Iâm skeptical of redistribution framed as moral virtue rather than practical policy. Good intentions donât override second-order effects, and pretending they do just pushes costs onto someone else later. Economic policy should work, not perform.
Socially, Iâm not interested in moral crusades from either direction. I donât want the state parenting adults, but I also donât romanticize disorder or pure libertarian abstractions. Rules matter. Enforcement matters. Order is a prerequisite for liberty, not its opposite. When institutions refuse to enforce boundaries, they donât become humane, they become arbitrary.
I reject nostalgia politics and culture-war cosplay. I donât believe tradition is sacred just because itâs old, and I donât believe novelty is virtuous just because itâs new.
I care about legitimacy that comes from competence, not symbolism. Governance by vibes corrodes trust, and compassion without limits turns into cruelty by diffusion.
Iâm skeptical of empire, hostile to ideological universalism, and allergic to systems that lie about tradeoffs. Iâm not trying to restore the past or save the world.
Iâm trying to keep things from breaking while letting adults live like adults. If I had to name it, Iâd call myself an institutional or civic realist: market-leaning, socially non-messianic, and focused on systems that actually function.
A Tariffs Primer
Tariffs arenât a moral statement or a magic revenue machine. Theyâre a blunt economic tool in a trade system thatâs never been truly free. Most countries impose higher tariffs and non-tariff barriers on U.S. exports than the U.S. imposes on theirs. When the U.S. raises tariffs, itâs usually not about âmaking money,â itâs about leverage. You restrict our access, we restrict yours, and eventually someone negotiates.
At the micro level, tariffs do raise prices. Thatâs Econ 101. If an imported good is hit with a tariff, much of that cost shows up in the domestic price. Consumers and firms bear it. The real question isnât whether prices rise, itâs why so many prices were so low to begin with.
For decades, Americans have lived at effectively âChina pricesâ while earning first-world wages. Walmart, the dollar menu, and ultra-cheap imports suppressed the cost of daily life even as wages stagnated. Thatâs why Americans didnât feel poor for a long time. Real purchasing power was propped up by global labor arbitrage, subsidies, scale, and policy. Thatâs not a conspiracy. Itâs standard macroeconomics.
China doesnât just compete on efficiency. It subsidizes production, capital, energy, and logistics, tolerates labor and environmental conditions illegal in the U.S., and sells goods at prices domestic producers cannot match. Thatâs dumping, whether the label is applied or not. Cheap goods feel great, but they hollow out domestic manufacturing.
So tariffs force a tradeoff. Do we want permanently cheap imports and a consumption economy dependent on foreign production, or do we accept higher prices to rebuild domestic industry and jobs for people who arenât knowledge workers? Without globalized low-cost manufacturing, a pair of running shoes wouldnât be $40. Prices closer to $150â$250 would be normal, reflecting real labor, compliance, and supply-chain costs.
Thereâs no free lunch here. Tariffs cost consumers, but dependency costs resilience. The argument isnât nostalgia or protectionism. Itâs whether we want an economy optimized solely for cheap consumption or one that can still make things.
America Does Not Go Abroad in Search of Monsters to Destroy chrisabraham.com/blog/amer…
Happiness of small cozy things
I promised my best friend and my little twin sister Iâd be a lot less bombastic this year, so instead of big opinions, hereâs a very PG, very G moment of quiet bliss.
I took a frozen young chicken that had been sitting in my freezer for six months, unwrapped it, set it on the trivet in my extra-wide 7.5L Instant Pot, added plain water up to the trivet, and cooked it for 70 minutes on Poultry with a natural release. No stock, no drama.
While that ran, I went to the store and bought a bag of plain white rice. Not jasmine, not brown. Iâm from Hawaii. I rinsed it thoroughly, again and again, until the water ran clear, and cooked it in my new-to-me three-cup Toshiba fuzzy logic rice cooker. I used a Zojirushi for nearly 20 years, loved it, gave it up when I went carnivore, and decided this time to try something different. The Toshiba held its own.
I also grabbed a can of pinto beans, a can of mixed vegetables, butter, Crystal hot sauce, and later added pickled jalapeños. When the rice finished, I warmed it with the beans and vegetables, seasoned gently with cumin, cayenne, salt, and pepper. Once the chicken cooled, I pulled all the meat from the bones and mixed everything together with the broth.
If I did it again, Iâd put the bones back in and pressure cook them another 90 minutes for extra stock. Next time.
What I ended up with was deeply comforting: mostly chicken, plenty of broth, and just enough rice and vegetables to support it. I portion about 30 ounces per serving. This morning, for breakfast, I added pickled jalapeños, a splash of brine, and a pinch of salt. No eggs, no ham, no rules. Just what felt right on a cold January morning.
It was exactly what I needed. Coffee next. Day begins.
This is extralegal and extrajudicial: no declaration of war, no clear congressional or UN authorization, no due process. Unilateral seizure of a foreign head of state shreds sovereignty and international law.
Maduro and wife captured by Delta www.washingtonpost.com/world/202…
NPR is the anti Trump station
Turned on WAMU/NPR this morning and every single segment is anti Trump. 100%. Amazing. One just came on now: “Trump sent Biden death penalty inmates to supermax.” NPR is Anti-Trump News. Makes sense but even bad press is good press as long as you spell his name right. I’ve listened to WAMU since 1993 and this is unprecedented (unpresidented).

